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Turmeric price forecast

Turmeric prices to Increase

Indian turmeric is one of the best quality in the world due to its high curcumin content. In India, turmeric is grown as a kharif crop with planting beginning from May and extending up to August, while arrivals start from February. The crop is ready for harvest in approximately 7-9 months. India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric in the world. The world production of turmeric stands at around 8, 00,000 tonne annually of which India holds a share of approximately 75 per cent (6,00,000 tonne).

                India holds the top position in the list of world’s leading exporters of turmeric. During 2012-13, India exported 80,050 tons of turmeric, compared to 79,500 tons in 2011-12. Asian countries usually consume a large share of their own produce and India stands at top in this case also. The major turmeric producing countries are India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Taiwan. The major turmeric exporting countries are India, Thailand, Other Southeast Asian countries and Central and Latin American countries. UAE is the major importer from India buying over 18 per cent of the total exports from India followed by the US with 8 per cent.

Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odissa, West Bengal, and Karnataka are the top producing States. Andhra Pradesh contributes roughly around 47 per cent of the total production. Turmeric is mainly used to flavour and colour foodstuffs and an ingredient in cosmetics and medicines. The production of turmeric is concentrated in the southern part of the country mainly in the peninsular area. The warm climatic conditions and consistent rainfall in those areas support the growth of turmeric and many other spices also. As per the trade sources, area under turmeric has reduced by about 20 per cent in 2012-13 in India.

                To help farmers in taking right decision on whether to sell or store turmeric, the Market Intelligence Cell (MIC) functioning in UAS, Bangalore collected the modal prices of turmeric, that prevailed in Erode market during the last eleven years and econometric analysis was carried out to predict the prices of turmeric for the harvesting months. Also an opinion survey of turmeric traders was conducted. Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that Kharif turmeric would fetch a modal price of Rs.6000/qtl at Karnataka markets in March, April 2014. A marginal hike in price is expected from July 2014 onwards. Hence farmers are advised to take suitable marketing decision. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments.

Turmeric futures (April) would possibly consolidate in the range of 6640-6850 levels. The most-actively traded turmeric contract for April delivery rose 0.68 percent to 6,810 rupees per 100 kg on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange.  However, concern about the yield of the crop due to excessive rains in top producer Andhra Pradesh limited the downside.  At Nizamabad, a key market in Andhra Pradesh state, spot turmeric fell Rs 32 to Rs 5,873 per 100 kg.

Traders’ survey result: on account of huge unsold stock of previous season the prices are likely to be under Rs. 5000 per quintal.


Research team

Dr. C.P. Gracy, Jyoti Naik, Nagashree, N.,


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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.