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Turmeric Price Forecast

Turmeric Prices will be Stable from April to June

          Turmeric, the yellow spice had witnessed a peak price of Rs.17,000 per quintal in November 2010 and started decline in prices to Rs.4600 in September 2011. For the past two months, the turmeric price is in uptrend due to low stocks and production.

According to trade sources, 37 lakh bags (80kg) are in stock in India while in Tamil Nadu alone it is reported to be around 14-17 lakh bags. As per trade sources, area under turmeric reduced by about 20 % in 2012-13 in India and in Andhra Pradesh, which stands first in turmeric production,  the area has come down to 49,349 ha in 2012-13  from  66,000 ha in 2011-2012. But the yield is good compared to Tamil Nadu. In Tamil Nadu, it declined by around 40 per cent. In Erode district alone which is the major cultivator of turmeric, the area got reduced to 6318 ha in 2012-13 comparing 12,664 ha in 2011-12. National level production is expected to be 45-50 lakh bags.

Currently there is less arrivals in the market compared to last year. Also turmeric from Orissa, West Bengal are available in the market this year but the quality is not matching with Erode turmeric. Also one variety known as minisalem is arriving to Tamil Nadu especially from Maharastra at the price equivalent to Erode varieties. The quality characters are similar to Salem variety.

         According to Spices Board sources, turmeric export in 2011-12 was estimated at 79,500 tonnes (49,250 tonnes in 2010-11) valuing Rs.734.34 crores (Rs.702.85 crores in 2010-11). In spite of increased export and reduced area under cultivation, due to higher stock position the price is not increasing. Farmers, traders and exporters are keen to know whether this price will sustain or will there be an increase or decrease in future? This is more crucial to take their storage / sales decisions.

          To help the farmers and other stakeholders in turmeric, the NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, (CARDS) Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore analysed the monthly prices of turmeric that prevailed in Erode Regulated Market for the past more than 15 years. The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre functioning in S.V Agricultural College, Tirupathi analysed the prices of turmeric that prevailed in Nizamabad market during last 15 years. The results of the analysis indicated that the prices will be moving around Rs.7500 - Rs.8500 per quintal till May, June 2013 and then the price movement will be based on the monsoon predictions. Hence farmers are requested to take their selling / storage decisions accordingly.

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.