India is one of the world's largest producers of white rice, accounting for 20% of all world rice production. Rice is India's prominent crop and is the staple food of the people of the eastern and southern parts of the country.Rice is predominantly grown in Asian countries. Among the rice growing countries, India has the largest area (40.2 million ha) followed by Chaina and Bangladesh. Average rice yield of India is only 1339 kg per hectare. This year according to weather reports, the rainfall received by the paddy areas in India is 24 per cent below normal. India produced a record 104.32 million tonnes of rice in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June) against 95.98 million tonnes of the grain in the 2010-11 crop year. Paddy started flowing slowly into the markets in Karnataka. Paddy farmers are in a distress condition as the price ruling over the months is volatile. Under such situation, to help the farmers to take right decisions regarding place and time of sale of the commodity, the prices of paddy that would prevail in major markets of north Karnataka have been predicted by the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) established in the Department of Agri-business Management, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad.

Monthly modal prices of paddy were collected from Sindhanur APMC, the leading rice market in north Karnataka, for the past 20 years and were analyzed by using rigorous time series analytical models and reliable forecast prices that would prevail in this market during February, March and April 2013 were established. The forecast prices were cross verified with the opinions of traders, agricultural marketing scientists and progressive farmers to fine tune the forecast prices. The prices prevailing in other major markets and the government policies with regard to the marketing of the crop were also considered to come up with accurate price forecasts.

The ruling purchase price of paddy in Sindhanur market during January 2013 is Rs 1390 per quintal. According to price forecasts and opinions of traders and suggestions of the experienced persons, per quintal prices of paddy would be around Rs.2200-2400 in the month of February, which is expected to be Rs.2300-2600 in the month of March and Rs.2200-2500 in the month of April in Sindhanur market. So farmers are advised to sell paddy in the month of March to fetch better price. The storage cost in FCI godowns is Rs. 6.5/quintal per month. The Minimum Support Price announced by the Central Government for paddy for this year is Rs.1280/quintal for grade A, Rs.1250/quintal for coarse variety (common). Well dried, clean and bold grains fetch better prices and acceptance from government agencies for procurement. The farmers need to keep these points in mind while preparing the produce for the market.