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Rabi pre-sowing price forecasts for 2016-17


         India is the largest producer of bengalgram followed by Pakistan, Turkey and Iran. India producers  around 6-8 million tonnes and contributes around 70 per cent of the total world production. India accounts for 2/3 rd of the world’s bengalgram production. India imports around 3-4 lakh tonnes of bengalgram annually from Canada, Australia, Iran, and Myanmar. Trade sources said adverseweather hadshrunkthe 2015-16 domestic bengalgram crop to around 5.5 million tones from 7.33 million tonnes last year. Also depletion of imported stocks from Australia, estimated to be around 4-5 lakh tonnes, also resulted in an uptrend in prices. According to trade sources prices will start cooling off once imports of the new crops arrive from Australia, where the next crop that will be   harvested in October is bigger in size at 1.3 million tonnes as against 1 million tonnes last year. Once imported bengalgram arrives in local markets in November, 2016, bengalgram prices may decline by Rs.1000-1500 per quintal.

       Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market intelligence Center (AMIC) of S.V. Agricultural College, Tiruapti has forecasted the price of Bengalgram in the coming months using econometric analysis of the modal prices of bengalgram in Kurnool  Market. Given the present scenario and market sentiments the prices are likely to be around Rs.5500-6000/- the farmers are advised to take sowing decision accordingly.



            Edible oil imports are rising by about 7-8 lakh tonnes a year on rising domestic demand.  The per capita consumption is increasing by 3-4 per cent every year. Sunflower is the fourth most important crop in the country.  The average yield of sunflower seeds in India is about 650 – 750 kg/ha, which is approximately half of the world’s average.  This may be attributed to lower percentage of area under irrigation, poor quality seeds, vulnerability to drought and output loss due to pests and diseases.  Sunflower oil being healthier one, it commands premium over other edible oils especially palmoil.  India imports sunflower edible oil from Ukraine, Russia and Argentina.

            In recent years there is a fall in the area under sunflower in Andhra Pradesh.  It is presumed that area in rabi 2016-17 may be closer to the area sown in the corresponding season of 2015-16.  Now the interest is about the prices that are likely to prevail during January and February, 2017.

            To arrive at the prices during harvest time, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, S.V.AgriculturalCollege, Tirupati analysed the modal prices of sunflower for 15 years from Kurnool market.  The results of the analysis, market survey and present market sentiments indicated that the sunflower prices are likely to be in the range of Rs. 3000-3400/- per quintal during January to February 2017, i.e. rabi harvest period. Farmers are requested to take there sowing decision accordingly.



           According to the latest data made available by the Union Agricultural Ministry,  maize acreage rose by over 10 per cent to 82.22 lakh hectares. Scarcity of maize made the government earlier this year to import 5 lakh tonnes to ensure adequate availability of inputs for feed producers. India produced 21.81 million tonnes of maize in crop year 2015-16 a fall in nearly 10 per cent in mage over 2014-15, according to the ministry. The international grains council (IGC) raised it forecasts for both world maize production in 2016-17 season, taking them to record highs. The largest adjustment is for maize and it is entirely due to a sustained improvement in crop prospects in the US. World maize production  in 2016-17 was seen at a record 1.030 billion tonnes up from previous year projection of 1.017 billion tonnes and the prior seasons 969 million  tonnes (MT). The US, the world’s top maize producers was projected to harvest a crop of 379 million tonnes up from a previous forecast of 365 million tonnes.

          Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market intelligence Center (AMIC) of S.V. Agricultural College, Tiruapti has forecasted the price of maize in the coming months using econometric analysis of the model prices of maize in Nizamabad Market. Given the present market sentiments backed up by market survey in the light of analytical result the prices are likely to be in the range of Rs.1350-1400/-at harvest period.



        There was a shift to groundnut from cotton by the Gujarat farmers this year as cotton was un-remunerative, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu account for close to 90 per cent of the total groundnut production. Groundnut has been increasingly used for direct consumption as table nut as it is the cheapest among all the nuts, but there is no commensurate increase in their production. India produced 65 lakh tonnes of groundnut in 2015-16.

         In the kharif season (2016-17), Gujarat- the largest producer  of the oilseed, has witnessed record groundnut sowing, on over 16.4 lakh hectares with output projected at 26 lakh tonnes. One of the highest in three years. Malaysia and Indonesia accounts for almost the entire global production of palm oil. Hence lower production in Malaysia is one reason for the stiffening of the prices. The heating up of demand as consumption improves on the part of the big importers such as China and India is another. Demand is both China and India is expected to remain strong ahead of the festival season in the  second half of the year.

       To arrive at the prices likely to prevail at rabi pre-sowing  the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati attempted econometric analysis of modal prices of Kurnool market. The results coupled with traders’ survey indicated that prices are likely to be around Rs. 4800 to 5000/qtl at rabi (2016-17) harvesting in this holds good given the present market sentiments.



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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.