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Rabi pre sowing price forecasts for 2014-15

Rabi pre sowing price forecasts for 2014-15

Farm price of groundnut pods likely to be in the range of Rs.4000-4200 at rabi harvest

Despite being high in oil and protein content, groundnut has lost out to other oilseeds in the complex, such as soyabean and canola in the global oil seed market in recent years. No wonder global peanut production has been languishingat around 39-40 million tonns in recent years, a mere 8 per cent of aggregate world oilseeds production versus, say, soyabean that accounts for a whopping 60 per cent. Not just in the world market , in India too, groundnut has lost its pride of place among major oils. Until the late 1990s, groundnut oil used to be the kingpin among edible oils and held a major share in the country’s vegetable oil basket, but not anymore as its production has slipped far below that of rapeseed oil and soyabean oil. Because of its high dependence on the south-west monsoon, groundnut production in kharif season has fluctuated from year to year depending on spatial and temporal distribution of rains, while rabi harvests have held fairly steady at 15-16 lakh tonnes. For 2014-15, groundnut in shell production target is 90 lakh tonnes comprising 72 lakh tones in kharif and the rest for the rabi season.

            Under the above circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of the Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V. Agricultural Collage, Tirupati made an econometric analysis of modal prices of groundnut for 15 years from Kurnool market. Given the present market sentiments and as reveled by the analysis and market survey, the price per quintal would likely to be in the range of Rs.4000-4200/Q during rabi harvest period.


            In the current oil year (November, 2013- October 31, 2014), the country is expected to import 11 million tonnes of oil compared to 10.4 million tonnes imported in the year before. Kharif oilseeds output may decline by up to 2 million tonnes over last year as the area under the crops has declined due to poor monsoon coverage according  to the solvent extraction industry.  This could fuel a record import of edible oils next season starting November, 2014 with the industry pegging shipments at some 12 million tonnes. Edible oil imports are rising by about 7-8 lakh tonnes a year on rising domestic demand.  The per capita consumption is increasing by 3-4 per cent every year. Sunflower is the fourth most important oil seed crop in the country.  The average yield of sunflower seeds in India is about 650 – 750 kg/ha, which is approximately half of the world’s average.  This may be attributed to a lower percentage of area under irrigation, poor quality seeds, vulnerability to drought and output loss due to pests and diseases.  Sunflower oil being healthier one,  commands premium over other edible oils, especially palmoil.  India imports sunflower edible oil from Ukraine, Russia and Argentina.

            In recent years there is a fall in the area under sunflower in Andhra Pradesh.  It is presumed that area in rabi 2014-15 may be closer to the area sown in the corresponding season of 2013-14.  Now the interest is about the prices that are likely to prevail during January and February, 2015.

            To arrive at the prices during harvest time, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati analysed the modal prices of sunflower for 15 years from Kurnool market.  The results of the analysis, market survey and present market sentiments indicated that the sunflower prices are likely to be in the range of Rs. 3600 – 3800 per quintal during January to February 2015.


              Maize entered bearish market in July 14, 2014 as most U S crops developed in good gradation and a government’s report  showed inventories in June 14 were larger than expected. Farmers may harvest a record 13.93 billion bushels globally.

               The States such as Karnataka and Punjab have seen a lower planting this kharif. Besides shortfall in rain fall, farmers have shifted to other crops such as cotton and pulses. The U S Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected the maize output in the country for 2014-15 at 21 millions tones. According to the third advance estimates by Agricultural Ministry maize output for 2013-14 stood at 24.19 millions tones. But optimism prevails among trade analysts that rabi crop can make up.

                 Given the national scenario, it is of interest to know the prices that are likely to prevail at the time of rabi harvest. In order to forecast the same, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Center (AMIC) functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, analysed the modal prices of maize for 14 years in Nizamabad market. The analysis, supported by the market survey reveled that the prices are likely to be around Rs. 1300/Q at harvest.

Ample stocks of bengalgram likely to retain prices around MSP at harvest

Bengalgram is a highly nutritious protein-rich pulse crop.  It is one of the largest cultivated food legumes across the globe.  Indian culture is predominantly vegetarian and pulses form an inherent part of the diet; bengalgram being one of them.

            Bengalgram prices have largely remained bearish over the last few months due to record domestic production for the second consecutive year in  2013-14 season

which put  pressure on prices. Carryover stock of 2012-13 season, coupled with record output last year, has led to a comfortable supply situation.  According to the Fourth  Advanced Estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture, bengalgram output stood

 at 9.88 million tonnes, up by 11.9 per cent compared with 8.83 million tonnes, the previous year. Increased acreage and favorable climatic conditions in the major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Karnataka also helped to push up the production.Now the government has set a target of 9.3 million tonnes for bengalgram production for 2014-15 rabi season, down by 5.87 per cent.

Under these circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the prices that are likely to prevail at harvest period (Jan-Feb 2015) by taking the modal prices of bengalgram pertaining to Kurnool market for the past 10 years and applying econometrics models.  The results of the model along with the market survey and given the present market sentiments revealed that the prices will be around MSP i.e., Rs. 3100/ Q.  during the harvest period.


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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.