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Rabi pre-sowing crops price forecasts for 2013-14



            The edible oil industry expects the area under oilseeds such as groundnut to expand by 5 per cent this kharif over last season on good progress of monsoon across the country.  The rains have brightened the prospects for kharif oildseeds  and the  acreage  is expected to   go up. Planting  of oilseeds has taken off on positive note and states such as Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh reported higher acreage.

The groundnut crop in Gujarat this year is estimated at a record high of 25.95 lakh tones on higher yields and acreage according to the Solvent Extractions Association of India.  For the Kharif 2013-14 season, Gujarat had reported groundnut acreage of 16.6 lakh ha. 36 percent more than last year 12.24 lakh ha. The Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India in its First Advanced Estimates has pegged   the country’s groundnut crop at 55.69 lakh tones against 31 lakh tones produced last year.

The area under groundnut in rabi 2012-13 in the state was around 2.5 lakh hectare and the area in rabi 2013-14 would be close to the area in the corresponding season of 2012-13.  To forecast the prices of groundnut at rabi harvesting period, the Agricultural Economics, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati made an econometric analysis of modal prices of groundnut for 15 years from Kurnool market.  To support the analysis, the market survey was also conducted.  Given the present market sentiments and as revealed by the analysis and market survey, the price per quintal of groundnut would likely to vary between Rs. 4000-4200 during harvest of the same.


            The global harvest of 10 oilseeds is forecasted to rise to 484.5 million tones from 463.5 million tones in 2012-13, according to OIL WORLD.  The imports of refined oils stood at 1.54 million tones during  November, 2012 – June, 2013 about 27 percent more than corresponding period of last year.  In the first eight months of the year, starting from November 2012 till June 2013, refined oils constituted 22 percent of total edible oils imported.  Sunflower is the fourth most important crop in the country.  The average yield of sunflower seeds in India is about 650 – 750 kg/ha, which is approximately half of the world’s average.  This may be attributed to lower percentage of area under irrigation, poor quality seeds, vulnerability to drought and output loss due to pests and diseases.  Sunflower oil being healthier one, it commands premium over other edible oils especially palmoil.  India imports sunflower edible oil from Ukraine, Russia and Argentina.

            In recent years there is a fall in the area under sunflower in Andhra Pradesh.  It is presumed that area in rabi  2013-14 may be closer to the area sown in the corresponding season of 2012-13.  Now the interest is about the prices that are likely to prevail during January and February, 2014.

            To arrive at the prices during harvest time, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati analysed the modal prices of sunflower for 15 years from Kurnool market.  The results of the analysis, market survey and present market sentiments indicated that the sunflower prices are likely to be in the range of Rs. 3600 – 3800 per quintal during January to February 2014.


            Maize production in the country this year is likely to touch a record 25 million tones as adequate monsoon rains trigger higher acerage across growing states.  According to data available from the Union Ministry of Agriculture, the area under maize, as on October 2, has risen by 11 percent to 82.24 lakh ha. against 74 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. Higher than normal rains across major maize growing states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are likely to further push up rabi acerage.  Maize production is likely to surpass all records this year.  According to the First Advance Estimates of Ministry of Agriculture, maize production is expected at 17.8 million tones during this kharif  compared with 16 million tones for 2012-13.  Rabi production last year stood at around 6.25 million tones despite bad mansoon and so this year, rabi production too is likely to be higher.

            Given the national scenario, it is of intent to know the prices that are likely to prevail at the time of rabi harvest.  In order to forecast the same, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, analysed the modal prices of maize for 14 years in Nizamabad market.  The analysis supported by the market survey revealed that the maize prices are likely to be around Rs.1300/Q at harvest.  Hence farmers can take the sowing decision.


            In India 17 million tones of pulses are produced from 24 million ha. but demand far exceeds supply leading to imports of 3 million tones from Australia, China, Canada, Africa and other regions.  Kharif production constitutes 35 percent of the annual pulses production.  In the country redgram, blackgram and greengram are the major pulses grown in Kharif season.  The area under kharif pulses has increased substantially this year to 99.6 lakh ha against 85.3 lakh ha last year.  But, it is lower than the normal area of 110 lakh ha.  In the last two year, the support prices have been raised by over 30 percent for all pulses.  The pulses and grains body sees a record output for the whole year at 184.50 lakh tones against the previous one of 182.4 lakh tones in 2010-11.  The higher production could also result in lower imports of pulses.  But it is understood from the trade circles that blackgram crop was affected in most of the producing areas.

            In Andhra Pradesh the area under blackgram during the rabi 2013-14 will be almost closer to the rabi area of 2012-13.  Shortly the rabi-sowings are to be taken up in Andhra Pradesh.  It is of interest to know the prices that are likely to prevail at harvest season.  The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, analysed the blackgram prices of Tenali market.  The results of the econometric analysis along with the market survey revealed that the prices are likely to hover around Rs.4000 per quintal at harvest.


            South Asian countries such as India, Pakisthan, Bangladesh and Srilanka are all importers of pulses.  India, the world’s largest producer, importer and consumers of a wide range of pulses is obviously a focus of attention, especially for exporting countries such as Canada, Australia, US and Mayanmar.  Indias pulses production in 2012-13 is an estimated 17.7 million tones up from 17.1 million tones of 2011-12.  India’s annual imports of pulses are estimated at about 30 lakh tones valued at over Rs.9,000 crores.  For 2013-14 the Government has fixed a production target of 19 million tones, with specific measures including crop diversifaction and mixed cropping.  A steady increase the minimum support prices in the last three years has provided some encouragement to growers with demand topping production.  Imports consist mainly of yellow peas, redgram and bengalgram from countries such as Australia, Canada, Myanmar, Tangania and Mozambique.

            The farmers now are curious to know the prices of bengalgram at harvest during 2013-14.  To arrive at the expected prices at harvest time, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati made an analysis using the modal prices of bengalgram in Kurnool market.  The analysis along with the market survey given the present market sentiments indicated that the prices would be around Rs. 3000 – 3200 per quintal at harvest.




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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.