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Rabi pre-harvest price forecasts for 2015-16


             India is the second largest producer of groundnut in the world.  Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odissa and Uttar Pradesh are the major states growing this oilseed.

            On the global front, China leads in production, making up some 42 per cent of overall production.  India (12 per cent) and the US (8 per cent) follow it.  Although India and China are the world’s largest groundnut producers, they account for a small part of international trade because most of their production is consumed domestically.  Groundnut has been increasingly used for direct consumption as tablenut as it is the cheapest among all the nuts, but there is no commensurate increase in its production.  In Andhra Pradesh both kharif and rabi seasons of 2015-16 registered a lower area compared to the previous year.

            In order to forecast the prices of groundnut during the period from March 2016 to July 2016, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre at S. V. Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of groundnut using the modal prices of Kurnool market with the help of econometric analysis.  Market survey was also conducted.  Given the results of the analysis, output of market survey and the present market sentiments, the prices are likely to be around Rs. 4500/Q for the period from February 2016 to July 2016.  The farmers are advised to act accordingly.


             Edible oil imports are rising by about 7 to 8 lakh tonnes a year on rising domestic demand.  The per capita consumption is increasing by 3 to 4 per cent every year.  Sunflower is the fourth most important oil seed crop in the country.  The average yield of sunflower seeds in India is about 650 to 750 kg / ha, which is approximately half of the world’s average.  This may be attributed to lower percentage of area under irrigation, poor quality seeds, vulnerability to drought and output loss to pests and diseases.  Sunflower oil being healthier one, it commands premium over other edible oils especially palmoil.  India imports sunflower edible oil from Ukraine, Russia and Argentina.

            In recent years there is a fall in the area under sunflower in Andhra Pradesh.  The area sown in rabi 2015-16 was lesser than the area during the previous year as per trade sources. Now the interest is about the prices that are likely to prevail during the months from March 2016   to July 2016.

            To arrive at the prices during the future months, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the S. V. Agricultural College, Tirupati analysed the modal prices of sunflower for 15 years from Kurnool Market.  The results of the analysis, market survey and the market sentiments indicated that the sunflower prices are likely to be in the range of Rs.3,500 to Rs. 3,700/Q during the months commencing from March 2016 to July 2016.  The farmers can dispose sunflower seeds at the prevailing prices.


             According to Ministry of Agriculture as per the data available in January 2016, the area under bengalgram has increased to 83.67 lakh ha from 80.84 lakh ha.  In Karnataka this year the area under this pulse has increased to 14.94 lakh ha from the previous year’s area of 10.41 lakh ha.  In certain parts of important states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra the rains in December, 2015 have led to an increase in the area.  The harvest in these areas of the said states is likely to commence in March 2016.  From Madhya Pradesh the arrivals will commence from February second or third week.  There are imports into India from Australia and Tanzania.  The production is expected to increase in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.  In Andhra Pradesh the targeted area is around 4.75 lakh ha. 

            Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) has forecasted the prices of bengalgram for the coming months taking the modal prices of Kurnool market.  The analysis was supported by market survey.  The results of the analysis and outcome of the market survey indicated that in the coming months the bengalgram prices are likely to stay around Rs.4200-4400/Q.


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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.