RABI PRE-HARVEST PRICE FORECASTS FOR 2014-15

SELL GROUNDNUT IN APRIL, 2015

            Despite being high in oil and protein content, groundnut (peanut) has lost out to other oilseeds in the complex, such as soyabean and Canola in the global oilseed market in recent years.  No wonder, global peanut production has been languishing at around 39-40 million tones in recent years, a mere 8 per cent of aggregate world oilseeds production versus, say, soyabean that accounts for a whopping 60 per cent.

            Not just in the world market, in India too, groundnut has lost its pride of place among major oilseeds.  Until the late 1990s, groundnut oil used to be the kingpin among edible oils and held a major share in the country’s vegetable oil basket; but not any more as its production has shipped far below that of rapeseed oil and soyabean oil.  For 2014-15, groundnut in shell production target is 90 lakh tones comprising 72 lakh tones for kharif and rest for rabi.  In this year the area and production of groundnut has decreased in which is opening a promising scenario for groundnut in the coming months.  The analysis carried out by Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S. V. Agricultural College, Tirupati indicated that there is a possibility of groundnut pods touching Rs. 5000/quintal in the forthcoming months.  Farmers therefore are advised to store groundnut till the end of March and April, 2015 for a better price.

SELL SUNFLOWER IN APRIL, 2015

            Despite being one of the largest producers of oilseeds in the world, India’s import dependence has doubled over the past few years owing to expanding consumption of edible oils and stagnating production of oilseeds.  The country imported vegetable oils worth $10 billion in 2013-14 compared with $5 billion in 2007-08.  Currently, import of oilseeds attracts 30 per cent duty besides 4 percent special additional duty.

            During the period from November 2014 to January 2015, sunflower oil imports touched 5 lakh tones against 3.62 lakh tones during corresponding period of last year.  Despite the fall of domestic production, these imports are putting a check on the prices.  The area under sunflower in the country this year i.e. till January, 2015 stood at 2.78 lakh ha against 4.15 lakh ha. Last year.

            Under these circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence centre operating in S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of sunflower seeds in the coming months.  The econometric analysis of the modal prices of Kurnool market has indicated that the prices may increase in April, 2015.

DISPOSE MAIZE ON HARVEST

             Maize exports have slowed down as overseas buyers are seen shifting to the cheaper consignments from South America and the US trade analysts expect maize output to decline to around 22 million tonnes this year.  The exports in 2014-15 dropped to 2.5 million tonnes against 3.5 million tonnes in 2013-14.  Exports are not viable right now as international prices are lower.  Indian maize is expensive by about $40 per tonne over the South American origins and there are no shipments happening now.  Globally there are abundant supplies and china’s imports inputs (the second largest consumer in the world) are down by 20.4 per cent in 2014. In view of the favorable weather conditions, the rabi production is expected to be encouraging.

            To help the farmers in taking appropriate selling decision the econometric analysis carried out by the Agricultural Market Intelligence centre of S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati using the modal prices of Kurnool market indicated that there is no much possibility for maize prices to increase further.  The analysis was reinforced with the help of market survey.  Selling of maize at harvest prices is a better option for the farmers.

SELL BLACKGRAM IN APRIL, 2015

             In Andhra Pradesh, blackgram is cultivated in Krishna, Guntur and Prakasam districts as a rabi crop and harvesting has just been commenced.  The congerial environment in this rabi is promising a good crop in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Chattisgadh.  In Tamil Nadu by March and April, 2015 the crop is ready for the markets while the produce from Madhya Pradesh is due in May and June, 2015.  The crop prospects are good in all these areas.  Under these conditions farmers have doubts regarding timing the sales.  In order to help them to take appropriate selling decision the Agrl. Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati has attempted to forecast the prices of this crop in the coming months, making use of modal prices of Tenali market.  It was supplemented by market survey also.  These results reveal that the prices are going to be in the range of Rs.5,800 – 6,000/quintal in the coming months.

BENGALGRAM PRICES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COMING MONTHS

            India which produces about 6 to 8 million tonnes of bengalgram is the largest producer followed by Pakisthan, Turkey and Iran.  It contributes about 70 per cent of the total world production.  Rainfall during mid January is estimated to have damaged at least 4-5 per cent of crops in Rajsthan apart from other parts of the country, especially Madhya Pradesh.  According to market estimates the actual damage might be some 8-9 per cent as rains have damaged matured crops more than standing crops.  Bengalgram prices are showing signs of recovery following the concerns that unseasonal rainfall in January could affect the overall output.  The are under the crop also declined as farmers switched over to other remunerative crops. 

            The production in Andhra Pradesh is expected to be less than last year.  To help the farmers in taking selling decision, the AMIC of S.V.Agricultural college, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of bengalgram using modal prices of Kurnool market.  The forecast and market analysis indicated that the prices will touch Rs. 4,000/Quintal in the coming months.  Storage is a better option.