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Price forcasting news

NAIP Team Pantnagar predicts prices of Potato, Fine paddy and Mustard

NAIP Project “Establishing and Networking of Market Intelligence Centers in India” is under operation at GBPUA&T, Pantnagar since 2009. One of the objectives of this project is to generate price forecasts well in advance of sowing and during harvesting of field crops. The project Team led by Dr. Anil Kumar is engaged is generating price forecasts of important crops of Uttarakhand State viz., potato, fine paddy, mustard, ginger, brinjal and tomato. However, crops like sugarcane and wheat, where the prices are declared by the government have been left out from the forecast list.

The research team has recently forecasted the prices of potato, fine paddy and mustard. A market survey of  Haldwani regulated market, a major market for Potato and Rudrapur regulated market, a major market for fine paddy  and Mustard in the Uttarakhand, was conducted and the prices prevailed during last 20 years in these markets were studied and analyzed using suitable techniques.

The results revealed that the prices of fine paddy  ( Pusa 1121, Panjab-1 and Sarbati etc.) in the forthcoming season  would be ruling in the range of Rs. 1725-1850 per quintal in October 2012 and Rs. 1750-1850 per quintal in November 2012, and Rs. 1825-2000 per quintal in December 2012. However the prices of traditional basmati paddy like Tarawadi, Dehradun Basmati and Pakistni Basmati etc. would be ruling in a higher range.

 Paddy is the most important and extensively grown food crop in the World. It is the staple food of more than 60 percent of the world population. The area under paddy in the world was 159.41 million hectares with a production of 696.32 million tons during 2010. The major paddy producing countries are China, India, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Burma, and Bangladesh. India has the largest area under paddy in the world and ranks second in production after China.  India ranks among the first top five exporters of rice and export about 7-8 lakh tones mostly to Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries, Europe, and USA. India produces about 20.24 per cent of global rice production. The area under paddy in India was 42.56 lakh hectares and production was around 143.96 million tons during 2010. West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Orissa, Assam, Karnataka and Haryana are the major paddy producing states in India. As far as Uttarakhand is concerned, area under paddy crop was 0.3 million ha and production was 0.58 million tons during 2010. The major paddy producing districts in Uttarakhand are Udham Singh Nagar, Dehradun and Haridwar.

Likewise, the wholesale prices of potato (Plain) would be ruling in the range of Rs. 450 to 600 per qt in the month of January 2013 and Rs. 400 to 500 per qt in the month of February 2013. While prices are expected to hover around Rs 450-650 per qt in the month of March 2013. Thus, the farmers who wish to take potato cultivation in the coming season on their farms may take suitable decision regarding acreage under potato based on likely prices at the time of harvest.

Potato is grown in more than 150 countries in the world with a production of around 324.42 million tons during the year 2010. The top ten producers in the world are China, Russia, India, USA, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Belarus, France and Netherlands. These together contribute about 70% of the total production. China ranks first while Russia and India ranks second and third respectively. India contributes approximately 7.5 percent of the world’s total production. The yield rate per hectare in India is quite low that stands at 19.92 tons per hectare as compared to the productivity in the European countries that ranges between 30-40 tons per hectare. Potato is most widely grown vegetable crop in the country with a share of 25.7 per cent. The area under potato cultivation was 1.99 Million ha with total production of 36.57 MT in 2010. Major potato growing states are Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Punjab and Karnataka which together account for about 86% of India’s production. As far as Uttarakhand is concerned, very less area is grown under potato in the plains during normal season however the potato is arriving in the markets from adjoining areas of Uttar Pradesh.

The centre has also predicted that the wholesale prices of Mustard/Toria. It is expected that prices of mustard/toria would be ruling in the range of Rs. 2700 to 3000 per quintal during harvest season, that is, from January to March 2013. Accordingly farmers can avail this intelligence to put appropriate area under crop. In India, Mustard/Toria is basically Rabi season crop. Its sowing starts in the month of September and continues till end of December. Rajasthan is the largest producer of mustard/Toria in the country with a contribution of 54 per cent to the country’s total mustard/Toria production followed by Punjab and Haryana together contributing 14 per cent. Other major producers of mustard/Toria seed in India are Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Gujarat. The main regions encompassing the Mustard/Toria production in Uttarakhand are Bajpur, Kiccha, Gadarpur and Rudrapur. The sowing of mustard/Toria in the U.S. Nagar district starts from September and ends till November. Mustard/Toria is a 120 days crop and it’s harvesting starts from end of December.

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