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Pigeonpea demand and supply


Pigeon demand and supply

seasonal outlook on TUR

Tur production in the current year was declined by 20-25% due to unfavorable weather conditions prevailed mainly in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during growing stage. Excess rainfall during flowering stage also affected quality of dal, where millers get only 72-73% dal from seed compared to 78% in last year. Import prices of lemon tur quoting above $500 per tonne at Mumbai. Prices of tur may touch Rs.2500-2600 in the next 2-3 months. However, fresh buying can be seen after a moderate correction by Rs.100-150 as the prices moved up sharply in the last few days.

 

Tur  Reasons
 supply
  • Output estimates are low by 20-25% in kharif 2006
  • Arrivals have started in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, but may decline in the coming days
  • Millers are concerned about quality aspects 
Demand
  •  Demand may remain higher for this low priced commodity 

Seasonal Report on Tur (Red Gram)

Tur or Red gram or Arhar (Cajanus cajan (L) Millsp) belongs to family Fabaceae' and is a protein rich staple food and consumed in the form of split pulse as Dal. It is also called in
different names, Congo pea, toovar, toor, togari, gandul, Gungo pea, no eye pea. It has numerous nodules on roots containing Rhizobium bacteria, which fixes atmospheric nitrogen. It is originated in Asia and is being cultivated from 3000 years. Red gram is grown throughout the tropical and subtropical countries especially in south Asia, eastern and southern Africa, latin America and Australia. The main producing regions are Indian subcontinent, Eastern Africa and Central America. It is a single woody stemmed plant, grows about 4 meters in height and has a strong root system, which makes a drought resistant type.

Cultivation practices

Tur is cultivated in a wide range of soils from black clay to sandy soil, but very sensitive to waterlogged conditions. Being a drought resistant crop, it is best suitable for dry-land
farming and predominantly used as an intercrop with other crops like cotton, sorghum, ground nut, black gram etc., to increase the yield and maintain soil fertility. Seasonality Crop season in tur can be seen through out the year in major countries like India, Myanmar and Australia. In India and Myanmar, it is normally cultivated during rainy season beginning from June - July and ends in November - December. Tur is a kharif crop in India and arrivals start from October and extend till December.

World scenario

Tur ranks sixth among pulses production in the world and is a major legume crop. Average world production of tur is at 3.0 million tonnes in the last six years (2000-05). The area under cultivation is stagnant at 4.5 million hectares in the same period. India is largest producer of Tur constituting 75% of world production and stagnant production in the country reflected in global output. Other major countries are Myanmar, Kenya, Uganda and Malawi. Among these Myanmar contributes 15%, while other countries has very small share in the world production. Myanmar annually produces about 3.0-3.2 lakh tonnes and India is the major export market for this country. In the current year, output in Burma expected to fall by 10-15% due to shift in cultivation to urad and other crops. Other producing countries in African continent have no large market surplus to trade ininternational market. India is also a major consuming country and constitutes 90% of global tur consumption. India annually imports 3-4 lakh tons of which 96% is from Myanmar.

 

Production and consumption of tur in India

Red gram is second largest pulse crop in India accounting about 20 percent of total pulse production. India annually produces about 2.0-2.5 million tones, which is stagnant in the past 10 years. The shift in cultivation from pulses to commercial crops and lack of technological innovations to increase yields has hindered the rise in output. Area sown under crop was 34.02 lakh hectares during 2005-06 against 31.47 lakh hectares in previous year. Agriculture Department (September 2006) estimated production at 2.47 million tons for kharif 2006-07, however trading sources are predicting only 1.9 million tons. Erratic rainfall in Karnataka and Maharashtra during growing period and excessive rain during flowering stage led to low yield and quality damage. Major producing states are Maharastra, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa and Karnataka. Among these, Maharastra is largest producer of tur which constitutes about 34% and remaining four states contribute nearly 70% of total output in the country. The major trading centers of tur are Gulbarga, Lathur, Mumbai, Indore, Delhi, Hapur, etc., There are three major varieties of tur namely red, white and black tur. Red tur constitutes 90% of total tur output in India and major consuming commodity. White tur mainly grown in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh has share of 4-8% in total output.

Figure 3: Area and Production of Tur in India


Note: Production estimates for 2006-07 is based on survey in the market

Normally produce move from producing states namely Maharastra, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka to consuming centers like Delhi, Chennai, and Hyderabad etc. Produce from producing centers to consumption places goes through various channels. These includes, from producer to village trader or wholesaler or dal miller or commission agent. From these middlemen produce moves to milling centers for processing and the processed dal is channeled to retailers through wholesalers and finally to consumers. In this process commodity gets value addition through milling, storage and transportation costs.


Export and Import of Tur


India consumes nearly 90% of total world production, since it is consumed by large population as protein rich staple food. Although, India contributes to 70-75% of total gobal output, it annually imports 3-4 lakh tonnes to meet the shortage. Myanmar contributes 95% of total imports due to geological advantages. Other sources of imports are Tanzania, Kenya and Pakistan. India also exports small quantity (8000-10000 tonnes) of tur to countries like USA, UAE, Singapore and Malaysia, but ratio of export to import is higher (ratio is 40 during 2001-02) and increasing over a period of time. India exported tur worth of Rs.28 crores during 2003-04 and increased to Rs.46 crores in 2004-05. Indian government banned export of all pulses in last year to control rise in prices.

Figure 5: Export and import of Tur by India

Demand

India annually consumes about 2.6 million tonnes, which is higher than normal production of 2.5 million tonnes. It is mostly consumed in the form of dal a supplementary to food by households across the country. It is also used in preparations like snacks and other foods. Daily per capita availability of tur is less than 10 gms and declining with growing population. Marketable surplus in tur is 60-70% in major producing states and purchased by millers for processing. Presence of large middlemen adds value to the produce from production phase to consumption. Price analysis Prices of Tur are largely influenced by output estimates, arrivals, import prices and consumption demand. Monthly arrivals and prices of tur analysed for Akola indicates, opposite movement in these two factors. Arrivals normally declines from March and lowest arrivals seen during September - December. Since tur is kharif crop arrivals starts from December and extends till February and peak arrivals can be seen during January - February. Arrivals in other markets like Gulbarga and Tandur begins in early December and ends in February first week. Prices start moving upwards from March and remain firm till May- June and turns downwards as the sowing starts from June - July.

 

 

Price outlook

Spot prices of tur at Akola have declined from Rs.2100 levels quoting in September towards Rs.1800 levels. However, prices went up sharply towards Rs.2100 in a period of 3-4 days due to rise in import prices to $525 per ton. Stockiests and dal millers were active buyers during first week of January on expectation of further rise in prices in coming months due to overall fall in output.

 

Prices of tur currently traded in the range of Rs.1900-2000 in spot markets of Gulbarga  and Akola and expected to remain stable for next few days and move upwards.

Factors to watch out for

  • Production expected to decline by 20-25% in kharif 2006 to 19-20 lakh tones against normal output of 22-24 lakh tonnes
  • Import prices are quoting at $500 per ton
  • Concerns of poor quality of dal in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh
  • Arrivals decline in these two states in the next few days
  • Demand remains higher for this low priced pulse

Prices outlook can be as follows,
March - April - Rs.2500-2600
Note: Since prices have gone up sharply in the past few days, investors need to look for lower levels to buy for long term.

 

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