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Paddy to fetch better price in February- 2012

Paddy to fetch better price in February- 2012

Paddy crop started flowing slowly into the markets in Karnataka. Paddy farmers are in a distress condition as the price ruling over the months is volatile. Under such a fix, to help the farmers to take right decisions regarding place and time of sale of the commodity, the prices of paddy that would prevail in major markets of north Karnataka have been predicted by the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) established in the Department of Agri-business Management, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad.

Monthly modal prices of paddy were collected from the leading rice market, Sindanur, for the past 20 years and were analyzed by using rigorous time series analytical models and reliable forecast prices that would prevail in this market during February, March and April 2012 were established. The output prices were cross verified with the opinions of traders, agricultural marketing scientists and progressive farmers to fine tune the forecast prices. The prices prevailing in other major markets and the government policies with regard to the marketing of the crop were also considered to come up with accurate price forecasts.

The normal arrival is expected due to good crop stand in the current rabi season (yield is 25-28 q/ha). According to price forecasts and opinions of traders and suggestions of the experienced farmers, per quintal prices of paddy would be around Rs.1500 in the month of February, which is expected to reduce to Rs.1350 in the month of March and further reduce to Rs.1250 in the month of April in Sindhanur market. The Minimum Support Price announced by the Central Government for paddy for this year is Rs.1110/quintal for grade A, Rs.1080/quintal for coarse variety (common). Therefore, farmers are advised to sell paddy immediately after harvest because storage will not fetch any higher price. 

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.