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onion price forecast

Onion Prices to remain firm

Onion is extensively used in Indian culinary and also a foreign exchange earner among vegetables. As per the estimates, production of onion in India during 2012-13 is 168.17 lakh tonnes as against 175.11 lakh tonnes last year and it occupies an area of 1064 thousand ha. Out of the total production, more than 80 per cent is consumed domestically and about 10 per cent is exported. The export of onion during 2011 -12 was 1.3 million tons with a value of Rs 1,722.85 crores. India is the 2nd largest producer (19.90 %) of onion, in the world next only to China (26.99) but the productivity of onion in India is very low i.e. 14.21 tons/ ha. as compared to other countries. Other onion producing countries in the world are Pakistan (2.24%), Turkey (2.50%), and Brazil (2.05%). Major Export destinations (2011-12) are Malaysia, Bangladesh, United Arab Emirates, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Indonesia and Nepal.

Gujarath is the major onion producing state in the country. Onion production in Karnataka is estimated at 25.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13 against 24.51 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Production in Madhya Pradesh is set to increase to 21.53 lakh tonnes from 19.57 lakh tones. Other major onion producing states are Maharashtra, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa and Tamil Nadu.

Karnataka accounts for 20 per cent area and 13 per cent total output of onion in the country. In the state of Karnataka, north Karnataka accounts for the bulk of the total onion production and Hubli and Belgaum are the biggest onion markets. Dharwad, Chitradurg, Gadag, Haveri, Bagalkot, Davengere are the major onion growing districts in the kharif season.

To help the farmers to take a decision on sowing of onion, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in UAS Bangalore collected the modal prices of onion that prevailed in Bangalore market during the last eleven years and econometric analysis was carried out to predict the prices of onion for the harvesting months. Also an opinion survey of onion traders was conducted. Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that Kharif season onion would fetch a modal price around Rs.1000-1100/quintal during harvesting season (September-October). This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & monsoon and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall.

Research team

Dr. C.P. Gracy, Jyoti Naik, Nagashree,N

Market Intelligence Center

 University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.