Monsoon to decide - Turmeric prices to hike or fall this harvest season
Turmeric is grown as a Kharif crop in India. The crop-harvesting season commences from January and continues till March. India is the leading producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric in the world. Turmeric is mainly used to flavour and colour foodstuffs and an ingredient in cosmetics and medicines. The production of turmeric is concentrated in the southern part of the country, mainly in the peninsular area.
India accounts for 78% in world production and 60% in world export share. Major turmeric growing states are Andhra Pradesh (57%), Tamil Nadu (23%), Karnataka (6%) and Orissa (4%). Indian turmeric is considered as the best in the world because of its high curcumin content. India’s production stands at 8.30 lakh MT with an area of 1.84 lakh ha in the year 2015 (Indiastat).
Asian countries usually consume a large share of their own produce and India stands at top in this case. The major turmeric producing countries are India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Taiwan. The major turmeric exporting countries are India, Thailand, other Southeast Asian countries and Central and Latin American countries. Iran is the major importer from India buying over 18 per cent of the total exports from India followed by the US with 8 per cent.
Turmeric prices have turned bullish on reports of a production shortfall in the key growing areas of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra in 2015-16. Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu together account for around 70% of the total output in the country. Traders mentioned that prices are hovering around Rs.85 to 90 for unpolished turmeric, Rs. 90 to 95 per kg for single polished/medium quality, Rs. 95-100/kg for double polished /high quality turmeric. Lower carry forward stocks of 2015-16 crop has further fuelled the price rally. Worries over decline in production are weighing on the crop this year too, unless good showers are received during May and June. But, on the other hand, demand for the commodity has been increasing rapidly from the medicinal and cosmetic industry.
In order to help the farmers, the National Institute for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NIAP), New Delhi has funded “Network Project on Market Intelligence” functioning in the Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management, UAS Bengaluru, collected the monthly modal prices of turmeric that prevailed in Bengaluru market during the last ten years and statistical analysis was carried out to predict the prices of turmeric for the harvesting months to guide turmeric farmers. Based on the analysis, traders and farmers survey, it is forecasted that turmeric would fetch a modal price of around Rs.9500-9900 per quintal during April'16 to January'17. This forecast prevails on awaiting showers during the months of May and June this year, current market sentiments, storage pattern & any change in EXIM policy and could alter the prices accordingly.
Dr. M. S. Jayaram, Dr. C. P. Gracy, Dr. M. R. Girish
Mangala V Reddy andSowmya Shree. K. L
Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management
UAS, GKVK, Bengaluru-65