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Maize price forecast 2013-14

Maize prices to hover around MSP

Maize is the most widely distributed crops of the world. It is cultivated in the tropics, sub-tropics and temperate regions. Maize is utilized domestically for poultry and cattle feed, food, manufacturing of starch and other industrial purposes. In the last few years, good quantity of maize is also being exported from India to different countries. It is understood that with the increasing demand for value added foods and industrial requirements, from a growing economy and population, maize will hold its share as an important cereal crop.

Maize ranks first in world production (868 million tons from 168 million hectares) followed by wheat (691 million tons) and rice (461 million tons). This represents 38% of the total grain production as compared to 30 % for wheat and 20% for rice.

Among the cereal crops in India, Maize with annual production of around 22.5 million tonnes from 8.67 million hectares ranks third in production and contributes to 2.4% of world production with almost 5% share in world harvested area in 2013-14.

Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh together contribute 60 per cent of area and 70 per cent of maize production in India.  Maize production in rabi 2012-13 at national level was 5.5 million tonnes. Karnataka produced 4.4 million tonnes of maize from 1.3 million hectares in the year 2012-13. The estimated maize export from India is around 3.5 million tonne in 2013-14 and the current season maize exports are expected to be lower by about a third over last year’s record high of 4.8 million tonnes on a lower crop and rising domestic demand.

Major markets of maize in Karnataka are Davanagere, Belgaum and Bagalkot. The harvesting period of kharif maize in Karnataka starts from the beginning of October and arrivals come to the market by middle of October. So, for the benefit of farmers, the NAIP Market Intelligence Cell (MIC) functioning in the department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management, UAS Bangalore collected the modal prices of maize that prevailed in Davanagere market during the last eleven years and econometric analysis was carried out to predict the prices of maize for the harvesting months. Also an opinion survey of maize traders was conducted. Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that Kharif season maize would fetch a modal price of around Rs.1350-1400/quintal from October 2013 to December 2013. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & monsoon and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall. Government has announced minimum support price for maize of Rs.1310 per quintal for kharif 2013-14. Farmers are advised to sell upon harvest as the prices are unlikely to increase during the forecast period.


Dr.C.P.Gracy, Jyoti Naik, Nagashree,N.

Department of Agricultural marketing co-operation and business Management

    UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.