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maize price forecast



            Maize is the third most important crop after wheat and rice in the world. Global maize production forecast for 2012-13 is 833.0 million tonnes with a reduction of 5.1 million tonnes from last year and stocks are expected to decline to a six year low by the end of this year as per the forecast made by International Grain Council (IGC). Maize is grown both in kharif and rabi seasons in India. The contribution of kharif maize is around 65 per cent to the total production.

            Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Rajasthan are the top three maize producing states in India. Davanagere is the major maize producing district in Karnataka accounting for 1/3rd of the state’s production. Maize prices in Karnataka are flat and are likely to remain subdued till June due to low consumption. Prices are subdued due to low consumption from end users — poultry industry and poor demand for exports. Maize is an essential raw material for producing poultry feeds which accounts for nearly sixty percent of feed. Hence The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre under NAIP Project of the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, has conducted Econometric analysis of modal prices of maize in Davanagere market, during harvest period to help the farmers in taking suitable sowing decision.

            The results of the analysis and Trader’s survey revealed that the prices are expected to be in the range of Rs.1250 to Rs. 1350 per Quintal at the time of harvest in markets like Davanagere. Hence farmers are recommended to sow hybrids which could yield bold grains with attractive yellow colour. The forecast is subjected to change with changes in fuel price, export policy, rainfall and occurrence of poultry diseases.

 Traders are losing interest in maize. If some traders want to buy at all, they want to buy on credit, not cash, Prices of maize, mostly used in poultry feed mills, may fall further as growers and traders expect higher production due to more acreage for maize farming.

Research team

Dr.C.P.Gracy,  Nagashree,N.,  Jyoti Naik

University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore




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