Skip to main content

KHARIF PRE-SOWING PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR 2013-14

 

 

 

KHARIF PRE-SOWING PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR 2013-14

 

Cotton price to be around Rs.4000 at kharif harvest

India is playing an ever- important role in the world’s cotton market. It is the world’s largest grower. Major export destinations are Bangladesh, Pakistan, China and other far-east countries.

            In 2012-13, in Andhra Pradesh, the area under cotton was 22.69 lakh bales. After Maharashtra and Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh occupies third position followed by Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana. These states cover about 88 per cent of the total area where as in the production front, these states contribute 87.04 per cent of the total production in India.

            In Andhra Pradesh, major cotton growing districts are Adilabad, Karimnagar (15.52%), Warangal, Guntur, Khammam and Nalgonda and these districts cover about 80 per cent of the total cotton area. Cotton is sown normally during June and July months and harvesting starts from October month and the arrivals are peak in the months of October, November and December and medium in January and February and generally lean from March to June.

      To know kharif harvest prices of cotton, econometric analysis of modal prices of cotton in Warangal market for a period of 14 years was undertaken by the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) in the Dept. of Agricultural Economic, S.V.Agricultural College; Tirupati. The outcome of the analysis along with traders’ survey has indicated that the cotton price per quintal will be around Rs.4000/q during harvest (October 2013). 

Greengram prices likely to be Rs.4300- 4400 per quintal at kharif harvest

Production of pulses in India is likely to drop marginally in the current year ending June 2012. India is poised for an output of 17.4 million tonnes, according to the second advance estimates of the Government of India. Rabi crop accounts for 60 to 70 per cent of pulse production, while kharif makes up the rest. The country consumes about 21 million tonnes of pulses a year. The shortfall is offset by import of about 3 million tonnes.

            The important states cultivating greengram in the country are Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar, Tamil Nadu etc,. The important districts cultivating greeengram in the state are Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, East Godavari, Khammam, Warangal, Guntur, West godavari, Nellore etc. The area in 2013-14 is likely to be the same as in 2012-13 given the disincentives prevailing for the pulse crops. Under the circumstances, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, S.V.Agricutural College, Tirupati. analysed the likely prices to prevail at harvest period of kharif greengram, using econometric analysis of the modal prices of important greengram markets in Andhra Pradesh. Going by traders’ survey and the results of the analysis, the greengram prices are likely to rang between Rs.4300-4400 per quintal during harvest and farmers can take their sowing decision accordingly.

Groundnut prices to remain stable at harvest

            Groundnut is one of the vastly produced oilseed crops as it is cultivated in more than 100 countries in the world and that is why it is referred to as a universal crop.  In addition to oil extraction, it is used for making edible products for human consumption, protein rich meal, and fodder for livestock.  Groundnut or peanut is commonly called the poor man’s nut.The major exporters of groundnut are Indonesia (45 per cent), Philippines (16 per cent), Malaysia (14 per cent), Persian Gulf (5 per cent) and U K (4 per cent).

            Gujarat is the leading producer contributing 29.63% of the total production followed by Tamil Nadu (20.78%), Andhra Pradesh (15.23%), Rajasthan (8.23%), Maharashtra (8.23%) and Karnataka (7.82%). Anantapur, Kurnool, Chittoor, Kadapa and Mahabubnagar districts   contribute nearly 80 per cent of groundnut production in Andhra Pradesh with a production of 15.52 lakh tonnes.

            In Andhra Pradesh, groundnut is sown normally from June to July in kharifand November to December in rabi in all the groundnut growing districts. In kharif under rainfed conditions the area normally stands at around 10.5 lakh ha. About 2 lakh ha of area is found under rabi groundnut (irrigated in the state).

            To take sowing decisions in June-July it is essential to have an idea about the groundnut price that might prevail during harvesting period. To help the farmers to take a right sowing decision AMIC functioning in the Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V.Agrl.College, Tirupati has come forward.

            To forecast the prices of groundnut for the harvesting month (October 2013), econometric analysis of modal prices of groundnut that prevailed in  Kurnool market for a period of 14 years and Yemmiganoor market for a period of 11 years was attempted. Also the international prices of edible oils, Government policy on oil imports and traders’ opinion along with the estimated prices were taken into account. Based on all these it is expected that the groundnut price per quintal will be ranging from Rs. 4000 to Rs.4200 during the harvesting period (October 2013). The farmers can benefit from varieties like K6, Narayani and Grishma.

Kharif maize to fetch Rs. 1200- 1250/q during harvest

India ranks among the top 10 of world’s maize producers. Indeed, in our country, maize is an exceptional success story among generally poorly performing cereals. Acreage and output are steadily rising. Currently, this coarse grain is cultivated in about 8.5 million hectares with a production of 21 million tonnes. Less than a quarter of the planted area is irrigated.

In Andhra Pradesh, Karimnagar, Medak, Nizamabad, Mahabubnagar, Guntur, Warangal and West Godavari districts contribute 80 per cent of the total maize production. In this state, maize is sown normally from June 15th to July 15th in kharif in all the maize growing districts and October to November in rabi in Rayalaseema and Telangana regions and October to January in coastal region. Kharif harvest is from September to November and in rabi from February to May. Peak arrivals hit from October to December and March to April, medium in January to February and the arrivals are lean during June to August. Maize price mainly depends upon demand for poultry feed, rainfall factors, production and export demand besides crude prices. In Andhra Pradesh, it is normally sown in an area of about 5 lakh ha. In kharif season.

Usually one-third of the constituents in poultry feed is maize. There is no substitute to maize as a minimum quantity is required to get the yellow colour of the egg yolk. Against this background, Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati has undertaken econometric analysis of modal prices of maize at the key market of Nizamabad to forecast the prices of maize during harvest period (September- October 2013). The results of the analysis indicated that the price per quintal will range between Rs.1200-Rs.1250 during September-October, 2013.  To arrive at the forecast, along with the mathematical modeling, traders’ survey is also considered.  Maize hybrids are extensively cultivated by the farmers. Based on their experience the farmers can choose the hybrids of their choice. 

Redgram to fetch arround Rs. 4000 at harvest

Redgram is the second largest pulse crop accounting to about 20 percent of total pulse production in India. The country annually produces about 2.0-2.5 million tonnes which is almost  stagnant in the past 10 years. The shift in cultivation from pulses to commercial crops and lack of technological innovations to increase yields has hindered the rise in output. The major trading centers of tur are Mumbai, Indore, Lathur, Delhi, Harpur, Gulbarga etc.,

In Andhra Pradesh major redgram growing districts are Mahabubnagar, Adilabad, Prakasam, Rangareddy, Kurnool, Nalgonda and Guntur covering nearly 66 per cent of the area. In the state, redgram is sown normally in June and July months and harvested in December and January months. The arrivals are good from December to February and lean in during March to April. 

       To forecast the prices of redgram for the month of December 2013, econometric analysis of modal prices in Thandur market for a period of 12 years was carried out by Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC), S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati. Based on the traders’ survey coupled with the results of the econometric analysis it is estimated that the price per quintal of redgram would be ranging from Rs.3900-4000 during the harvest period.  Based on this forecasted price farmers could take their decision on sowing of redgram including the area allotment. Sowings should be completed in June as a sole crop. LRG-41 is suited for Rayalaseema, Telangana and Coastal areas.

Soybean prices to around Rs.3300/q during kharif harvest

Soybean is the most important oilseed among kharif oilseed crops. India is the fifth largest soybean producing country in the world. The productivity of soyabean remained 1026 kg per ha.

India is one of the major exporters of soya meal to the Asian countries. Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and China are some of the major importers of soya meal from India. India is the third largest importer of soya oil in the World.

In Andhra Pradesh, Soybean is sown during June-July period and harvested by October and peak arrivals will be there from October to December, generally lean In June and July months and remaining months are medium. Sowing is mainly confined to the districts of Nizamabad and Adilabad in Andhra Pradesh.

     Soybean price mainly depends upon oil imports, crop in USA, Brazil and Argentina and rain fall factors. Soya oil ruled firm despite weak global cues and sluggish demand in physical  market. Soya seeds are ruling marginally higher at Rs. 3500 to Rs.3600 per quintal amidst week arrivals and higher demand for soya meal in the domestic market. Given higher demand in soya meal, bearish sentiment appears unlikely and its prices may remain on higher end. In Andhra Pradesh the area is likely to be the same as that of last year.  

To forecast the prices of soybean for the months of October 2013, econometric analysis of modal prices of Soybean in Nizamabad Market for a period of 9 years was carried out by Agricultural market Intelligence Centre of Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupathi, the results of which indicated that prices are likely to be around Rs.3200-3400 per quintal during October, November 2013. The Farmers are advised to necessarily adopt seed treatment before sowing. The prices are likely to change with changes in edible oil import policy of Government of India.

Kharif sunflower price likely to be Rs. 3600/q at harvest

The prices of edible in India move largely in line with the international palm oil price movements and domestic demand and supply situations. Sunflower oil being healthier oil commands premium over other edible oils especially palm oil. The branded segment for the sunflower oil is growing at 20 per cent annually and providing a vibrant market.

The major states growing sunflower in India are Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Haryana. The major trading centers for sunflower oil are Mumbai, Chennai, and Hyderabad. In Andhra Pradesh, major sunflower growing districts are Kurnool, Anantapur, Kadapa, Chittoor, Prakasam and Mahaboobnagar.

In Andhra Pradesh, sunflower growing seasons are kharif (June to September), rabi (October to December) and summer (January to March).To help the farmers to take a decision on sowing of sunflower, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning at S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupathi had estimated prices that might prevail for sunflower during the harvesting period.

            To forecast the prices of sunflower for the harvesting months (Sept and Oct 2013), econometric analysis of modal prices of sunflower in Kurnool market for a period of 14 years and Yemmiganoor market for a period of 11 years was carried out. Based on the model and traders’ opinion it is estimated that the prices are likely to range between Rs.3500 and Rs.3600 per quintal of sunflower seed during harvest. Based on the earlier cultivation experience, farmers can choose hybrids of their choice.

Polished turmeric prices to be around Rs.8000-9000 per qtl at harvest

            India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric in the world. Indian turmeric is considered to be the best in the world market because of its high curcumin content. India accounts for about 80 per cent of world turmeric production and 60 per cent of world exports. Other major producers are Pakistan, China, Haiti, Jamaica, Peru, Taiwan and Thailand. Asian countries consume much of their turmeric production.

            The important turmeric growing States in India are Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Maharastra, Assam, Kerala, Karnataka and West Bengal, in which Andhra Pradesh occupies 40 per cent of total turmeric area followed by Orissa and Tamil Nadu occupying 17 per cent and 13 per cent of total turmeric area respectively. In terms of production Andhra Pradesh accounts 60 per cent of total turmeric production in India followed by Tamil Nadu (13 per cent) and Orissa (12 per cent).

The turmeric production in 2011-12 was more than 85 lakh bags, a historic high. With a carry forward stock of 15 lakh bags, total availability was around one crore bags, which was double the domestic demand of 50 lakh bags. It was believed that the available stock can even meet the requirement of 2012-13 also. There was a reduction of area by about 25 to 30 per cent in Andhra Pradesh in 2012 -13. The sowing of turmeric will start in June 2013 and the harvesting will be in March, April 2014. The analysis undertaken by Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre of S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati using the modal prices of Nizamabad market revealed that the prices of polished turmeric during March, April 2014 will be around Rs. 8000-9000 per quintal.

 

 

 

 

 
   

 

 

 

 

0
Your rating: None

Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.