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Kharif pre-harvest price forecasts of cotton and turmeric for 2016-17


The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has predicted world cotton production for 2016-17 at 22.83 million tonnes - higher by 1.76 million tonnes than the 21.07 million tonnes produced in 2015-16. The global consumption of cotton for 2016-17 is estimated at 24.25 million tonnes, up by 0.05 million tonnes than the consumption of 24.20 million tonnes during 2015-16. Following the production of 337 lakh bales (170 kg each) in 2014-15, cotton production fall in 2015-16, causing prices to rally. According to the data provided by the Solvent Extractor’s Association, production fall to 350 lakh bales in 2015-16. This is set to increase marginally to 351 lakh bales in 2016-17. It is reported that Pakistan’s ‘‘Undeclared’’ suspension of cotton imports from India after tensions across the border, is not likely to affect shipments from India. There is a good demand from other importing countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil besides China.

Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market intelligence Center (AMIC) of S.V. Agricultural College, Tiruapti has forecasted the price of cotton in the coming months using econometric analysis of the modal prices of cotton  in Warangal Market. The price will be in the range of Rs.5200-5500/- quintal in the coming months (Jan-Feb, 2017). Farmers can take decision accordingly.



India accounts for four fifths of world’s turmeric production Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu are the key turmeric producing states contributing over 80 per cent of India’s total production. It exported 88,500 tonnes of turmeric in 2015-16, 111 per cent higher than the targeted quantity and 3 per cent higher than the exported quantity of 2014-15. The major export destinations are Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, China, Japan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the EU and the US. Poor rains have affected turmeric crop in Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. But the encouraging production anticipated in Telangana and Maharashtra is expected to compensate, the losses suffered in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. According to the trader sources the current production is set to increase from 60 lakh bags in 2015-16 to about 80 to 85 lakh bags.  

Under the above circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of turmeric in the coming months using econometric analysis of the modal prices of turmeric  in Duggirala  market. The prices are likely to be around Rs.7000/qtl in the coming months (January to March 2017). Based on the forecast farmers can take appropriate decision.










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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.