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Kharif pre-harvest price forecasts for 2017-18

Kharif pre-harvest price forecasts for 2017-18


Plan to dispose chillies after March, 2018

 Chilli continuous to be the largest exported spice from the country earning over Rs. 5000 crores during 2016-17. The normal chilli production in the country is about 14 lakh tonnes with Andhra Pradesh and Telangana accounting  for over 50 per cent of output. In 2016-17 India has witnessed an output of 18 lakh tonnes and combined with the carry over stock, the supply stood at more than 19 lakh tonnes and the affect on prices for most part of the last year was quite evident. Chilli prices crashed by over 50 per cent on the back of the glut touching a low of Rs.3500 /quintal. This year the arrivals from Madhya Pradesh too were poor. However Madhya Pradesh is a state with a limited production contributing less than 10 per cent to the total national output of chillies. Yet because of unseasonal rains coupled with pest problems in the main producing states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the production is expected to fall by 25 to 30 per cent in the country.

            Under the circumstances, the Agricultural Marketing Intelligence Centre being operated in the Institute of Agribusiness Management, Tiruapti has forecasted the prices likely to prevail in the coming months using modal price prices of Guntur market for past 15 years, with help of economic models supported by market survey. The results of the analysis indicated that the farmers can plan their disposal of chillies in March 2018 as the prices are likely to touch more thanRs.10500 /quintal.


Redgram prices would be less than MSP in the coming months

India harvested a record crop of 22.95 million tonnes of pulses in 2016-17. This led to a glut that sent domestic prices spiraling down. The drastic fall in the domestic prices of pulses, and agitation by the farmers, compelled the government to impose controls on imports through trade route and tariff routs. Quantitative restrictions have been imposed on import of redgram, blackgram, greengram in August, 2017 which has denied market access to pulses from Africa. Despite imposition of QRs on aforesaid pulses and subsequently customs duty on others (benglagram, yellow pea and lentils), market conditions with in  the country have not improved. Prices are still well below the minimum support prices (Rs.5450/Qtl). Under the circumstances, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre of S. V. Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of redgram harvest period using the modal prices of Tandur market.The prices are likely to be below MSP (Rs.5450/Qtl) in the coming months. Government invention in terms of procurement can only address the problem.


Turmeric prices likely to increase in June 2018

Bumper turmeric crop in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharastra in 2017 compensated the reduction of the crop in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. This resulted in a bumper output of 85 lakh bags in 2016-17 compared to the output of 2015-16 which stood at 60 lakh bags (each bag of 75Kgs). India exported turmeric to the tune of 20  lakh bags in 2017. The carryover stock of last year is around 15 lakh bags. This year production is going to be less in Tamil Nadu, Maharastra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. It is expected that the production this year would be around 50 to 55 lakh bags. Our domestic consumption would be around 55 to 60 lakh bags per year. As and the country needs to have stocks to meet the export demand. Under these circumstances the AMIC functioning in Institute of Agribusiness Management has forecasted the prices likely to prevail in the coming month using the modal prices of Nizamabad with the help econometric models. The results of the analysis coupled with the market survey has indicated that the prices are likely to be around Rs.9000 to 10000/- quintal by June, 2018. Farmers can take selling decision accordingly.

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.