KHARIF PRE-HARVEST PRICE FORECASTS FOR 2016-17
GREENGRAM PRICES WILL BE AROUND Rs. 5200/-QUINTAL
The sharp rise in the price of pulses during the last year which was one of the major courses that drone food inflation higer runs to have attracted farmers to pulses this year. The tones major pulses, redgram, blackgram and greengram have seen a sharp rise in the area under cultivation this year. The government’s move to increase the minimum support price for those pulses and also better deciding to give an additional Rs. 425/- per quintal bonus each for those crops may also have attracted the farmers. The area under greengram has raised by 33.09 per cent as the area increased from 25.63 lakh ha in 2015 to 34.11 lakh ha in 2016. Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh are the major producers of greengram. Rajasthan, the top producing state, is one of the three states in the country which have received excess rainfall, 28 per cent more than the average. The other two producers Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh have received normal rainfall which may affect the output.
Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market intelligence Center (AMIC) of S.V. Agricultural College, Tiruapti has forecasted the price of greengram in the coming months using econometric analysis of the modal prices greengram in Thandur Market. The prices are going to be around Rs.5000/-Qtl in the coming months. Farmers can take decision accordingly.
MAIZE PRICES WILL BE AROUND RS. 1300/Q
After two years of below normal rainfall, India has received 853.9mm of rainfall as against the long period average of 879.6mm during this south west monsoon period of June – September. In India there is a greater focus on the south west monsoon as there rains contribute more than 75 per cent to the total rainfall in the country. According to the first advance estimate of food grain production. India is set to produce 19.1 million tonnes of maize this year as against 15.2 million tonnes produced in 2015. This is mainly because the area under kharif maize saw a 7.1% year-on-year jump to 84.26 lakh hectares this year. Drought in Karnataka, Telangana and Maharashtra led to a fall in maize production in 2015. Late sowing and prolonged rainfall have helped in increasing maize production substantially. In addition to the domestic situation, lower international prices have effectively ruled out exports of the commodity. There is a bearish trend in the global maize market due to overproduction in key maize growing countries led by the US.
Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market intelligence Center (AMIC) of S.V. Agricultural College, Tiruapti has forecasted the price of maize in the coming months using econometric analysis of the model prices of maize in Nizamabad Market. The maize prices are not expected to raise in the coming months given the present market sentiments. The farmers therefore are advised to take selling decision accordingly
SELL GROUNDNUT ON HARVEST
Grown under rainfed conditions, groundnut is a major oilseed crop and it plays a vital role in bringing vegetable oil deficit in the country. India is the second largest producer of groundnut in the world. On the global front, China leads in production making up about42 per cent of overall production. India (12 per cent) and the US (8 per cent) follow it. Although India and China are the world’s largest groundnut producers, they account for a small part of international trade because most of their production is consumed domestically. Major exporters are the US, Argentina, Sudan, Senegal, and Brazil, while major importare the EU, Canada and Japan. In India Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharaashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh are the major states growing the oilseed. Among major oilseeds, only groundnut has seen an increase in acreage. Similarly to pulses, the government has increased the MSP and has also added a bonus of Rs.100 per Quintal for groundnut. A sharp 28 per cent additional land accounting for 46.96 lakh ha. has been covered under groundnut cultivation this year. Under the above circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of groundnut in the coming months using econometric analysis of the modal prices of groundnut in Kurnool market. Disposing at the present price of around Rs.5000/- is a better option.
SOYABEAN PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
Soyabean is one of the major oilseed crops in the world, accounting for about 60 per cent of oilseed production in 2015-16. About 86 per cent of the world’s total production is crushed for oil. The oil recovery in 17-18 per cent whole the meal forms 80-82 per cent. The US, Brazil and Argentina are the top three soyabean producing countries in the world, accounting for 83 per cent of the total world production in 2015-16. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global production is expected to go up to 333 million tonnes in 2016-17 from 313 million tonnes in 2015-16. According to the USDA, production in India is expected to go up from 7 million tonnes in 2015-16 to 9.7 million tonnes in 2016-17. This will lead to an increase in soyabean crushing in India to 7.6 million tonnes in 2016-17 from 5.87 million tonnes in 2015-16. In the past there was a good export market for Indian soyabean, but at present the higher prices of soyameal in the Indian market, compared to other International markets affected the exports. The bleak export outlook of soyameal and higher output of soyabean have kept prices under pressure.
Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market intelligence Center (AMIC) of S.V. Agricultural College, Tiruapti has forecasted the price of soybean in the coming months using econometric analysis of the modal prices of soybean in Nizamabad Market. As the present the prices are around 3,000/Q and not much increase in is expected in the coming months. Therefore the farmers are advised to take selling decision accordingly.
DISPOSE SUNFLOWER ON HARVEST
The country is expected to import 15.7 million tonnes of edible oil accounting for 70 per cent of annual edible oil requirement of 21 million tonnes in the oil year (November 2014 to October 2015). Despite of huge imports from India, edible oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to excess global supply. In the last few years, oilseed production has remained stagnant at 26-28 million tonnes in India leading to huge shortage of raw material for domestic oil mills which are operating at 30 per cent capacity utilization. The area under oilseeds in the present kharif season touched 177.74 lakh ha from 174.58 lakh ha comparing previous kharif season. But the area under sunflower has declined in the country from the normal area, which is likely to affect the production. Sunflower oil is imported from Russia and Ukraine. Under the circumstances the farmers should be advised of the prices likely to prevail in the coming months to take selling decisions. According to the analysis carried out by the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati, the prices are likely to remain more or less the same in the coming months. Disposal on harvest at Rs. 3200-3400/qtl is a better option, advises AMIC.