SELL GROUNDNUT ON HARVEST
Grown under rainfed conditions, groundnut is a major oilseed crop and it plays a vital role in bringing vegetable oil deficit in the country. India is the second largest producer of groundnut in the world. On the global front, China leads in production making up about42 per cent of overall production. India (12 per cent) and the US (8 per cent) follow it. Although India and China are the world’s largest groundnut producers, they account for a small part of international trade because most of their production is consumed domestically. Major exporters are the US, Argentina, Sudan, Senegal, and Brazil, while major importare the EU, Canada and Japan. In India Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharaashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh are the major states growing the oilseed. Nationally the acreage is down by about one lakh hectares. The decline is mainly in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, where the deficit rainfall has affected the sowing. This year it is expected that the export demand to be steadyto positive but the production outlook remains on the lower side due to the weak monsoon. Under thea bove circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V.AgriculturalCollege, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of groundnut in the coming months using econometric analysis of the modal prices of groundnut in Kurnool market. The present prices of around Rs. 5800 to Rs. 6000 are likely to prevail in future months up to December and January 2016. Preferring selling at current prices is a better option.
DISPOSE SUNFLOWER ON HARVEST
The country is expected to import 15.7 million tonnes of edible oil accounting for 70 per cent of annual edible oil requirement of 21 million tonnes in the oil year (November 2014 to October 2015). Despite of huge imports from India, edible oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to excess global supply. In the last few years, oilseed production has remained stagnant at 26-28 million tonnes in India leading to huge shortage of raw material for domestic oil mills which are operating at 30 per cent capacity utilization. The area under oilseeds in the present kharif season touched 178.55 lakh ha from 173.38 lakh ha comparing previous kharif season. But the area under sunflower has declined in the country from the normal area, which is likely to affect the production. Sunflower oil is imported from Russia and Ukraine. Under the circumstances the farmers should be advised of the prices likely to prevail in the coming months to take selling decisions. According to the analysis carried out by the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V.AgriculturalCollege, Tirupati, the prices are likely to remain more or less the same in the coming months. Disposal on harvest at Rs. 3600-3700/qtl is better option, advises AMIC
DISPOSE ON HARVEST (MAIZE)
After the biggest European corn harvest even last year, production in 2015 is poised to plunge output in the 28 nations of the European Union, will fall 19 per cent to 62.8 million tonnes based on the estimates in a Bloomberg survey. While record global inventories left over from 2014 have kept prices in check for now, needed domestic supply would require more imported feed grain for dairy firms and pork producers in Europe, the world’s biggest corn user behind the US and China. Global stock- piles before the 2015 harvest will be at an all- time high of 194 million tonnes, following record crops in seven of the past eight years. Even with output expected to drop this season in the EU and US, world reserves next year will still be the second highest ever, according USDA.
Erratic monsoon this year would hit maize production despite higher sowing reported across growing regions in India. Maize was sown in 7.59 million ha till September, 2015 compared to 7.46 million ha last year. Maize production is expected to be around 20 million tonnes, lowest in last few years due to irregular rainfall across growing regions of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Last year the production was 23.67 million tonnes. Now the maize is in harvesting stage in Andhra Pradesh and it is of interest to know the price behavior in coming months. The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V.AgriculturalCollege, Tirupati has forecasted the maize prices of Nizamabad market. The econometric analysis coupled with market survey and given the present market sentiments the prices are likely to be around Rs.1400/- in the coming months. Disposal at the present price is advisable.
SOYA FARMERS CAN POSTPONE THE SALES TILL DECEMBER, 2015
The production estimates of soybean during Kharif 2015 is put at 86.43 lakh tonnes, which is 3.57 lakh tonnes lower (3.97 per cent) over kharif 2014, according to the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA). SOPA, which has released its estimates for soybean production for kharif, 2015, has also revised its estimates of kharif, 2014 to 90 lakh tonnes. The carryover stock of soybean from last year is estimated at 9 lakh tonnes. Estimated initially by the government. Recently there has been a rally in the prices. There are two Triggers for this price rally. First China signing an agreement in September, 2015 to buy 13.18 million tonnes of US soybean worth around $ 5.3 billion. In 2014, it has bought only 4.8 million tonnes of soybean and paid $ 2.3 billion. The increase in buying by China improved the market sentiment. Second with the South-West monsoon ending with 14 per cent deficit, there are worries over the supply in the domestic market.
Given this scenario, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) at S.V.AgriculturalCollege, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of soybean in the coming months in order to help the farmers to take selling decisions. These forecasts are based on the econometrics analysis of monthly model prices of soya of Nizamabad market for 12 years, coupled with market survey. Taking the present market sentiments into consideration and the results of the aforesaid analysis the prices may increase and cross Rs. 4000/- by November and December 2015. Farmers can opt for storage
GREENGRAM DISPOSAL IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER, 2015 CAN BE A BETTER OPTION
India has the distinct position as the leading producer, the foremost consumer and the largest importer of pulses. Currently even as production has stabilized at 18.5 million tonnes our consumption is around 22 million tones necessitating yearly pulse imports of around 3.5 to 4 million tonnes. The major pulses grown are gram, a rabi pulse which contributes 40-45 per cent of the total pulses produced in India, and redgram which contributes to 16 per cent of output. Blackgram, greengram and masur are the other important pulses grown in the country.
As per the estimates of Ministry of Agriculture, the area under pulses is likely to be 108.37 lakh ha. as on September 2015 against 97.56 lakh ha. in the corresponding month of 2014. The area under greengram rose from 20.32 lakh ha. in September, 2014 to 24.57 lakh ha, in September, 2015. In the Rajasthan, the important state in greengram production, the failure of rainfall was expected to affect the production of this pulse. On the other side, in states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra the production in general is expected to be discouraging and more so in Maharshtra and Telangana. As the redgram prices are skyrocketing, greengram prices too on the rise. Under these circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V.AgriculturalCollege, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of greengram in the coming months, using monthly modal prices of Tandur market. Given the present market sentiments supported by results of econometric analysis and market survey, the prices are likely to cross Rs.8000/- Q. Farmers can wait for a month or two to take price advantage.