KHARIF PRE-HARVEST PRICE FORECASTS 2014-15

1. PRICES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY 500/Q IN MAY 2015 OVER FEBRUARY PRICES

            Chilli is the single largest exported spice from the country.  Buoyant export demand and recent reports of virus attacks on chilli crop in Madhya Pradesh are likely to keep prices bullist in the coming months.  Though the chilli crop acreage in Madhya pardesh has gone up, there are reports that the crop is down by 25 – 30 per cent.  But in Andhra Pradesh the production is expected to be more or less normal.  China, Thailand and Indonesia have been the major buyers.  Unlike Srilnaka and Pakistan, these countries buy the premium high heat variety Teja, which is priced above Rs. 90 per kg.  In 2013-14, India exported 3,12,500 tonnes of chilli valued at Rs.2,722 crore.  In Guntur the present stocks stand at 50 to 60 lakh bags.  The production expected to be less than that of last year by 5 to 10 per cent.

            In order to help the farmers in taking selling decision the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning at S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the chilli prices till May 15 using the modal prices of Guntur market for about 14 years.  To support the results of the analysis, market surveys were also conducted.  The outcome of the study shows that the prices are likely to touch Rs.8000 – 8500/quintal by May, 2015.  The farmers are advised to take selling decision accordingly.

2. FOR GOOD QUALITY TURMERIC PRICES MAY INCREASE BY Rs.1000 OVER FEBRUARY 2015 PRICES

            Among the commercial crops, in the past 45 days or so the prices of turmeric surged sharply in the spot market.  In 2012, 2013 and greater period of 2014, turmeric witness a downtrend due to higher carryover stocks and arrivals, following two consecutive years of record production.  Tamil Nadu and Karnataka recorded lower acreage in turmeric last year, down by 6-10 per cent year-on-year due to delayed monsoon and poor price realization in the previous year along with concerns over crop loss due to cyclone Hudhud that hit the state of Andhra Pradesh in October, 2014.  the extended monsoon has further reduced the prospect of good production in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Thus the production is likely to be down by about 15-18 per cent compared with last year. Turmeric prices are likely to firm up in the coming months on short supply and robust demand.

            The existing stocks stand at 40 lakh bags in India and the expected output this year (2015) is 37 – 38 lakh bags. Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning at S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted turmeric prices likely to prevail till May, 2015 using the modal prices of Nizamabad market.  The analysis was supported market survey.  The results reveal that the prices may be around Rs.7,000 – 7,500/Quintal by May, 2015 and the farmers are advised to store.

3. SELL REDGRAM IN APRIL AND MAY 2015

            During 2014-15 the redgram production is expected to be less than normal in the country in view of the fall in the acreage under the pulses.  The major producers of redgram viz Karnataka and Maharashtra registered a lower output.  Further heavy rain in eastern India too has a telling affect on redgram output.  Therefore the sales are very brisk in all the markets in India which presents a rosy picture in the coming months for redgram.

            To help the farmers to take an appropriate decision in selling, the price forecast estimates by the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati using the modal prices of redgram in Tandur, revealed that price/quintal of redgram is likely to cross Rs.6000 figure in the coming months which was also supported by market survey.  Farmers are therefore advised to store redgram till April and May, 2015.