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KHARIF PRE-HARVEST PRICE FORECAST OF TURMERIC FOR 2015-16

The decrease in the intensity of rainfall during July and August 2015, resulted in moisture stress in Telangana, Karntaka and Maharastra. In these states the area under turmeric has decreased. The area in Andhra Pradesh under the crop was about 15700 ha, an increase over last year’s acreage, but well below normal sowing area of 19000 ha. In Telangana the area stood at 40000 ha about 17 per cent lower than normal sowing area. Analogously in Maharastra and Karntaka too the area was down by 25 to 35 per cent. But in respect of Tamil Nadu, the area was up by 10 to 12 per cent over that of last year. In 2014-15, India exported 90,000 tonnes of turmeric but in 2015-16 the exports are likely to go down by about 10 per cent given the expectation of lower output. The trade sources indicates that the present stocks stand at 10-15 lakhs bags and the expected output of 2015-16 would be 30-35 lakhs bags. Under the circumstances, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of S.V.AgriculturalCollege has forecasted the prices of turmeric in the coming months using the modal prices of Nizamabad market. The results of the analysis coupled with the market survey in addition to present the market sentiments showed that the prices are likely to cross Rs. 10,000 per quintal around June 2016. The farmers can take clues from this information and make up their minds in disposing their turmeric.

 

 

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.