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Kharif pre-harvest price forecast for 2015-16


             The prevailing prices of chilli, the largest exported spice are a matter of delight for the Indian farmers.  The year 2014 witnessed a record output of 3,47,000 tonnes of chilli valued at Rs. 35.7 crore.  Chilli export from India was robust till September, 2015.  The production in Madhya Pradesh which hovers around 45 to 50 lakh bags was down for two successive years i.e. 2014 and 2015.  The production was less by 35 – 40 per during both the years.  Inadequate rains in the main chilli growing areas of Andhra Pradesh are likely to affect the production to an extent of 25-30 per cent despite an increase in area.  Though the Chineese crop has been good it looks to India for hot varieties.

             In sum the three reasons for the higher prices of chilli are increase in exports, failure in Madhya Pradesh for two consecutive years and inadequate rains in major producing region in the country.  Under the circumstances the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning in the S. V. Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the prices of chillies in the coming months using the modal prices of Guntur chilli market with the help of econometric analysis.  It was also supplemented by the market survey.  The results indicated that the prices are likely to rise in the coming months and the farmers are requested to keep a close watch on the prices for making selling decision.  Anything above Rs.15,000/Q will be certainly an attractive bargain.

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.