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Groundnut Price Forecast 2013-14



Groundnut is grown on a large scale in almost all the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Production of oilseeds has grown almost double in last 12 years from 176 lakh MT in 2000-01 to 321 lakh MT in 2012-13. In addition, cottonseed has emerged as a significant source of edible oil for India. Other significant sources of edible oil are copra, palm oil, rice bran and oil meals.

Total world production of groundnut in 2012-13 may amount to approximately 37.19 million tonnes (2011-12: 35.33 million tonnes). China, India, United States, Nigeria, Burma, Argentina and Indonesia are the major producers of groundnut globally. India exported 5.35 lakh metric tonnes of groundnut worth Rs. 4,065.38 crores during the year 2012-13. Major Export Destinations were Indonesia, Vietnam Social Republic, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. 

Groundnut production in Kharif (2012-13) was 26.20 lakh tonnes and the same was 41.75 lakh tonnes in Rabi 2011-12 in India. The major producers of groundnut are Gujarat (26.34 %), Andhra Pradesh (19.08 %), Rajasthan (17.68 %), Tamil Nadu (9.54 %), Karnataka (7.63 %), Madhya Pradesh (7.25 %) and Maharashtra (5.34). The major groundnut growing districts in Karnataka are Chitradurga, Dharwad, Belgaum, Bijapur, Raichur, Bellary and Bidar.

Kharif groundnut is expected to hit the major markets from the month of November onwards. There is an upward revision of minimum support price to Rs. 4000/q. Keeping in view of the rainfall, cropped area, stock position an econometrics price analysis of groundnut for the benefit of farmers to take suitable marketing decisions are made by the NAIP -Market Intelligence wing of the Department of Agricultural Marketing, Cooperation and Business Management, University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore. The last fifteen years monthly modal price data of Challakere market using time series model was analysed. Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that from November 2013 to December 2013 the prices to be around Rs. 3600-3800 per quintal and the prices level increases only from March 2014 onwards. Farmers are advised to sell well dried and sorted groundnut to realize better prices as storage will not result in profits. This forecast is valid for current market sentiments. Although groundnut oil is nutritionally superior, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil and cotton seed oil has a bearing on groundnut market sentiments.

The MSP is fixed at Rs. 4000/q. But the market prices are likely to be Rs. 3700-3800/q. Hence, it is recommended that the Government of Karnataka can make arrangements for procuring groundnut at MSP for the benefit of farmers.



Research team

Dr.C.P.Gracy, Jyoti Naik, Nagashree,N.

Department of Agricultural marketing co-operation and business Management

UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.