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First indication of rain deficit impact on crop production

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has made what sounds to me like a realistic forecast of crop production. Also, the Fourth Advance estimates have just been released (I will post them here as soon as I can). This is the PTI report which quotes CMIE:

The high rainfall deficit in June implies a fall in kharif crop production during 2009-10, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly report.
"The crop production will fall by 4.7 per cent during the year after recording a marginal increase of 0.3 per cent in 2008-09. If the rainfall does not turn out to be normal in July, crop production can decline further," CMIE said.
Foodgrain production is projected to fall by 5.6 per cent during 2009-10. Production of all kharif cereals is likely to decline. Rice output is expected to fall by eight per cent whereas production of coarse cereals will be down by 10.1 per cent. Pulses production is projected to decline by 1.7 per cent in 2009-10, but mainly due to a fall in production of other pulses.
Non-foodgrain crop production is projected to decline by 3.7 per cent in 2009-10. CMIE expects oilseeds production to fall by 3.3 per cent due to lower soyabean crop and stagnant groundnut production. Cotton production is likely to fall 8.9 per cent to 22-million bales. Sugarcane production is expected to drop by eight per cent to 266-million tonnes in 2009-10.
[Source: PTI 260709]

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.