Chilli is an important commercial spice crop from time immemorial and gaining lot of
economic importance because of its use in ready-to-use masala and sambar powders. Chilli is
cultivated exclusively for market, with a little proportion of it retained for its domestic
consumption. Framers of Byadagi areas are busy in preparing their lands for sowing of chilli.
But, price uncertainty at the time of harvest has kept them in bay and are in a fix to decide
about sowing of the crop. In order to help the farmers, the Domestic and Export Market
Intelligence Cell, Department of Agribusiness Management, University of Agricultural
Sciences, Dharwad undertook a study to come up with reliable price forecasts of chilli in
Byadagi market at the time of harvest.
Past twenty years monthly price data of dry chillies from Byadagi regulated market
has been collected and was analysed by employing rigorous statistical time series model and
prices have been forecasted. Other than this in order to check the forecast prices and also to
fine tune them further, the views and suggestions collected from chilli traders, agricultural
scientists and progressive chilli producers of this region were also considered. The prices in
other major markets for chilli, demand from manufactures of ready-to-use masala and sambar
powders government policies towards this crop, import export scenario of the crop and the
prices of the crop in other important markets were also taken in to considerations which
influence the future prices in Byadagi market.
According to the prediction of the DEMIC, the prices of chilli would be around
Rs.5900-6880 during month of December (2013) - February (2014). Well dried, uniform
coloured and free dust and dirt chillies would fetch better prices. The farmers need to keep
these points in mind while cultivating the chillies and bringing produce to the market for sale