Skip to main content

Cotton Price Forecast

Masipattam( Feb-Mar) Sown Cotton Price will be Stable


In the last (2011-12) and current cotton year (Oct-Nov), prices are not favorable to cotton farmers. It was around Rs 3800 to Rs.4200 per quintal for the past 18 months. Higher price (Rs.6400/Quintal) in 2010-11 encouraged cotton production in India. Inspite of   huge exports (128.81 lakh bales) from India in 2011-12, the price didn’t rise due to higher stock position. China has been the largest buyer of Indian cotton and bought more than 70% of the India’s exports in 2011-12. India exported around 85 to 90 lakh bales to China during 2011-12. This year, China’s huge cotton inventory (50% of global) reduced export opportunities. India's cotton exports as on today is 57 lakh bales.

Government of India estimated that the area under cotton during 2012-13 will be marginally lower by around 5 per cent at 117.73 lakh hectares compared to 121.8 lakh hectares last year. Most of the decline in area (29.62 l.ha to 23.63 l.ha) and production (120 lakh bales to 85 lakh bales) in Gujarat is made up by higher yields in rest of India and higher area in Andhra Pradesh. The Cotton Advisory Board has estimated a crop size of 330 lakh bales and consumption of 234 lakh bales for 2012-13. To protect cotton farmers, Government has increased minimum support price of cotton price to Rs.3900 /Qtl from Rs.3300 / Qtl for long staple cotton.

Tamil Nadu, being the major consumer of cotton in India (47%) produces five lakh bales from 1.2 lakh hectares. Masipattam (Feb-March) is a special season for cotton in Tamil Nadu and MCU 5, MCU 7, Surabhi, Suvin and Bt varieties are mostly cultivated in this season under cent percent irrigation. To facilitate farmers to take up sowing decisions, NAIP –Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed cotton prices that prevailed in Konganapuram Cooperative Marketing Society and it is informed that prices of cotton (long staple) will be around Rs.4200-4500 per quintal in July - August, 2013, during harvest of cotton to be sown in Masipattam. Increase in export orders, if any, from China, Bangladesh and Pakistan may bring positive changes in prices; Otherwise the price will be stable. Hence farmers are advised to take up sowing with varieties suitable for the Masipattam taking into account the above prices.

Your rating: None

Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.