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coconut price forecast

Coconut prices expected to remain firm

India is the second largest producer of coconut next only Indonesia and first in productivity among major coconut producing countries. India’s share of export was around 8,500 MT attributing to less than 0.33% of the total global export level of coconut oil. Coconut Development Board is taking all efforts to take the export to a minimum level of 1.5 lakh MT during the current oil year.

In India, coconut is grown in a total area of around 2.13 million hectares with a production of 15.35 million tonnes of nuts. India’s production increased by 2.72 % during 2012-13 compared to previous year as per the estimates of Government of India. In India, the four southern states put together account for more than 90% of the total production in the country (Kerala 36.88%, Tamil Nadu 34.11%, Karnataka 13.83%, Andhra Pradesh 6.16% and other states 9.0%).

Major coconut growing districts in Karnataka are Tumkur, Hassan, Dakshina Kannada, Chikmagalur and Chitradurga which together account for more than 85 percent of coconut area in the State. Tumkur district has the largest area under coconut followed by Hassan and the major coconut markets of the state are Tumkur, Tiptur, Arasikere, and Shimoga & Chamarajnagar. From Karnataka, coconut is moving to markets like Chennai, Delhi, Kolkata and Kolhapur.Similarly Bangalore APMC receives nuts from Tamil Nadu as it offers price advantage to traders. (same as in previous forecast)

To help the farmers in taking a decision on whether to sell or store the nuts, an analysis of prices of Tumkur market was undertaken by the NAIP – Market Intelligence Center of University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore. The demand for coconut oil in the international market went up, especially with Philippines deciding to raise the proportion of coconut oil in the bio-fuel mix. In April this year, the international price of coconut oil was ruling at $793 a tonne against $ 800 of crude palm oil. In July, the Philippines government decided to raise the proportion of coconut oil to five per cent in the coconut oil-diesel mix from the earlier two per cent. In September, the coconut oil price surged to $900 a tonne when the price of crude palm oil ruled around $720.

 The results of the analysis for coconut and traders survey revealed that the prices are expected to hover around Rs. 8.5-9 per nut in November and Rs.9-9.5 per nut during December and January for medium to big size for the next three months in Tumkur market. Since storage does not result in increased prices, farmers are recommended to sell coconut in November and December for better prices on harvesting matching the festival times. The big size nuts will fetch Rs. 1-2 premium.

RESEARCH TEAM

Dr.C.P.Gracy, Nagashree,N. Jyoti Naik,

Department of Agricultural marketing co-operation and business Management

    UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65

 

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Please note that this is the opinion of the author and is Not Certified by ICAR or any of its authorised agents.