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coconut price forecast

Coconut prices lackluster in the coming months

          India ranks third among the coconut growing countries of the world next to Indonesia and Philippines with an area of around 2.13 million hectares and production of 15.35 million tonnes of nuts in 2012-13. India’s production increased by 2.72 % during 2012-13 compared to previous year as per the estimates of Government of India. India is also the largest consumer of coconut products in the world (95 per cent of its net output) and it imports coconut products from other countries such as Sri Lanka, Seychelles and Malaysia.

In India, Kerala has the highest acreage under coconut accounting for about 42 per cent of the total area followed by Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh contributing 23%, 21.81% and 5.5% respectively to the total coconut area.

The major coconut growing districts in Karnataka are Tumkur, Hassan, Dakshina Kannada, Chikmagalur and Chitradurga which together account for more than 86 percent of coconut area in the State. Tumkur district has the largest area under coconut followed by Hassan and the major coconut markets of the State are Tumkur, Tiptur, Arasikere, Hassan and Mandya. From Karnataka, coconut is dispatched to markets like Chennai, Delhi, Kolkata and Kolhapur.Similarly Bangalore APMC receives nuts from Tamil Nadu as it offers price advantage to traders.

          The falling prices of coconut oil and copra is a cause of concern to farmers of Karnataka. Therefore, to help the farmers in taking a decision on whether to sell or store the nuts, an analysis of prices of Tumkur market was undertaken by the NAIP – Market Intelligence Center of University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore. The econometric analysis of the past eleven years data reveals that  the prices are expected to hover around Rs. 7-8 per nut in May and Rs.7.50-8.50 per nut in the month of June and Rs.7-8 per nut in the month of July for medium to big size  nuts for the next three months in Tumkur markets. Since it is a marriage season, farmers are adviced to grade the nuts and bring to market.  

Research team

Dr. C.P. Gracy, Nagashree,N., Jyoti Naik

Market Intelligence Center

 University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore


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